Is a recession looming in the US? Should I even invest in the market during a recession???

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Yes, the recession is looming; stock are dropping, bonds, are dropping, meaning mutual funds are dropping. China’s market is freaking out, India’s market is freaking out, and it looks like the US is hot on their tails. People say that there are only “bear” and “bull” markets, well this market to me sounds like a “gazelle” market. What’s a” gazelle” market? Well, when one in a group of gazelles gets spooked, they all go running, and that’s what I’m seeing in the market now.Is this bad for you as an investor?

Well, maybe if you’re 68 years old and looking to retire in the next year. Having your investment fall off like this right at the end doesn’t help. In my opinion, if you are planning on retiring in 2008, it might not be a bad idea to get out of the stock market all together. You SHOULD be allocating your funds off and be out of the market all together (and be primarily in low-risk funds like bonds) if you’re properly grooming your portfolio by this age, but if you ARE in, I’d get out.If you’re 28 years old and seeing this, I’m sticking to my guns, actually maybe even drooling.

If the market is down, that means prices are down on stocks. I stick close to $500 per month in my ROTH IRA and 401k combined. For the sake of numbers lets say that usually buys me 100 shares of my choice of funds I’m in. Well, with the market going down, the price of those funds go down, and that means for that same $500, I am getting 150-200 shares of those stocks with the same $.

“But Hank, it is a recession, everything is going down, how do you know your fund won’t go out of business????”

That is the beauty of a mutual fund:

1. It already IS diversified by nature. I’m in 20 (or so) stocks right in my fund choices. That’s the point of a mutual fund.
2. I’m paying the manager (via the expense ratio) of that fund to choose the best stocks in that fund. If he/she sees fit, he/she will get out of it.
3. I’m investing in GOOD mutual funds. I’m not going out on a limb with my investments, they’re strong companies in America that are driving my investing ship.

So yes, the recession may be looming, and likely if you’re reading my blog, you’re NOT 68 and you’re in between 20-40 and COMPLETELY fine with the recession. The big thing to think about is how many recessions have happened since the stock market started? 10? 20? 30? A handful for sure, so don’t worry about it. Ride the wave and the $ will come back. If the stock market goes 100% in the drink, we’ve got a lot bigger problems to worry about.

Do you have any stories of the previous recessions we’ve seen in the market? Did you stay put? Do tell!

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Tags: 401K, Balance Sheet, Compensation, Emergency fund, Financial Education, Investing, Mutual Funds, Net Worth, Portfolio //

7 Comments

  • User Gravatar no imageFFB (Who am I?)
    January 29th, 2008 at 9:06 am

    Know when I started putting more money into my company’s 401(k)? Around 2001 when everything was tanking. I think the S&P was in the 700’s or so. Even though my S&P index isn’t doing so great today, the shares I bought in the 700’s have still grown a good bit!

    If you have plenty of time yet then I think you stay the course and keep investing in your funds or ETF’s (so long as you were already investing for the long haul).

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  • User Gravatar no imageDwain (Who am I?)
    February 6th, 2008 at 10:25 am

    This is going to be a tough ride in my estimates. When people can’t pay for the homes they live in then we have a problem. America is losing there good paying jobs and can’t afford expensive houses to live in. Many of the unemployed who were getting unemployment checks, there checks are no longer there. So, our service based economy is catching up with us. No manufacturing means we don’t produce, which means no jobs. I have REREX, sold 20 percent to a bond fund. I have other stocks, sold 20 percent to a bond fund. I reccomend selling all to a Bond fund. I will wait hopefully, to see if there is a sgort term rise in market, if there is I will sell all to a Bond Fund. But, right now many are selling off there stocks to a Bond Fund, so it is helping to drive market down. But in my opinion, it is good advice. Due to the loss of jobs in the US, we cannot afford to live the American dream.

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  • User Gravatar no imageDwain (Who am I?)
    February 6th, 2008 at 10:40 am

    Dwain again. I might add a comment, I invested in PIMCO, a Bond Fund, it has went up slightly. A few cents, but I believe it is a better investment at this time, but you will have to use your own common since. Sellers and Buyers make the markets go up and down, bears versus bulls. So, with fears of recession, we are going to have a lot of selling and a lot of buying. Bears pull the Bulls down, Bulls pull it back up. But, with the component, recession in the equation, this is what I would pay attention to.

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